Risk Simulator Keygen

4/3/2019
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Apache ofbiz installation windows 10. The following is a comparison of various add-in packages available to do Monte Carlo probabilistic modeling and risk analysis. Add-ins covered are for Microsoft Excel on Windows. Mac software and tools for other platforms, such as R or Matlab are not included.

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General information[edit]

NameCompany nameOffice location(s)Product first releasedLast stable versionSoftware licenseLicense optionsSystem RequirementsSpreadsheet used
@RISK Industrial[1]Palisade CorporationAustralia, Japan, UK, USA19877.5ProprietarySingle user, network licenseWindows XP+Excel32-bit (Excel 2007+), Excel64-bit
@RISK Professional[1]Palisade CorporationAustralia, Japan, UK, USA19877.5ProprietarySingle user, network licenseWindows XP+Excel32-bit (Excel 2007+), Excel64-bit
Argo[2]Booz Allen HamiltonUSA20124.1FreewareN/AWindows XP+Excel32-bit (Excel 2007+), Excel64-bit
Crystal Ball[3]Oracle CorporationUSA198711.1.4.4ProprietarySingle userWindows 2003+Excel32-bit (Excel 2003+), Excel64-bit
Crystal Ball + Decision Optimizer[3]Oracle CorporationUSA198711.1.4.4ProprietarySingle userWindows 2003+Excel32-bit (Excel 2003+), Excel64-bit
DiscoverSim + SigmaXL[4]SigmaXL Inc.Canada20122.1ProprietarySingle userWindows Vista+Excel32-bit (Excel 2010+), Excel64-bit
Ersatz[5]EpigearAustralia20091.3ProprietarySingle userWindows 2000+Excel32-bit (Excel 2003+), Excel64-bit
MC FLO[6]MC FLOsimSwitzerland2016Sofía I.ProprietarySingle userWindows 2000+Excel32-bit (Excel 2010+), Excel64-bit
ModelRisk Complete[7]Vose SoftwareBelgium, USA20086.1ProprietarySingle user, network licenseWindows XP+Excel32-bit (Excel 2003+), Excel64-bit
ModelRisk Basic[7]Vose SoftwareBelgium, USA20086.1FreewareSingle userWindows XP+Excel32-bit (Excel 2003+), Excel64-bit
Monte Carnival[8]Monte CarnivalUSA20181.0ProprietarySingle UserWindows 95+Excel32-bit (Excel 1997+), Excel64-bit
Quantum XL[9]SigmazoneUSA20103.50.04ProprietarySingle userWindows XP+Excel32-bit (Excel 2000+), Excel64-bit
Risk AnalyzerAdd-ins.comUSA200311.02ProprietarySingle userWindows 2000+Excel32-bit (Excel 97+), Excel64-bit
Risk Kit Suite[10]Wehrspohn GmbH & Co. KGGermany20076.0ProprietaryFree, single user, network licenseWindows 2000+Excel32-bit (Excel 2003+), Excel64-bit
Risk Solver Pro[11]Frontline SystemsUSA200715.0ProprietarySingle user, network licenseWindows XP+Excel32-bit (Excel 2003+), Excel64-bit, Excel Online
Risk Solver Pro + Premium Solver Pro[11]Frontline SystemsUSA200715.0ProprietarySingle user, network licenseWindows XP+Excel32-bit (Excel 2003+), Excel64-bit, Excel Online
RiskAmp Personal[12]Structured Data LLCUSA200511.5ProprietarySingle userWindows 2000+Excel32-bit (Excel 2003+), Excel64-bit
RiskAmp Professional[12]Structured Data LLCUSA200511.5ProprietarySingle userWindows 2000+Excel32-bit (Excel 2003+), Excel64-bit
SAFE TOOLBOXES[13]Safe Quantitative TechnologiesUSA20161.0ProprietarySingle userWindows 2000+Excel32-bit (Excel 2003+), Excel64-bit
Simtools xla[14]Roger Myerson, University of ChicagoUSA?3.31aFreewareN/AWindows 95+Excel32-bit (Excel 5+)
Similar[15]Luciano MachainArgentina?2.5FreewareN/AWindows XP+Excel32-bit (Excel 2003+)
Simulation Master Premium[16]Vortarus Technologies LLCUSA201718.12.03ProprietarySingle userWindows XP+Excel32-bit (Excel 2007+), Excel64-bit
Simulation Master Standard[16]Vortarus Technologies LLCUSA201718.09.01ProprietarySingle userWindows XP+Excel32-bit (Excel 2007+), Excel64-bit
Tukhi[17]KALX, LLCUSA?0.2.11.5FreewareN/AWindows 95+Excel32-bit (Excel 5+)
YASAI[18] and YASAIw[19]Rutgers University and Washington State Department of EcologyUSA20012.4, 2.0w29Freeware, Open sourceN/AWindows 95+Excel32-bit (Excel 97+), Excel64-bit

Technical specification I[edit]

NameDistribution fittingCorrelation fitting[20]Time series fittingDecision treesOptimizer includedDatabase connectivityVBA calls to functions[21]C++ calls to functions[22]Six sigma supported
@RISK IndustrialYesYesYesPrecisionTree optionYesNoYesYesYes
@RISK ProfessionalYesYesNoPrecisionTree optionNoNoYesYesYes
ArgoNoYesNoNoYesNoNoNoNo
Crystal BallYesNoYesNoNoNoYesNoYes
Crystal Ball + Decision OptimizerYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYes
Crystal Ball EPM + Decision OptimizerYesNoYesNoYesYesYesNoYes
DiscoverSim + SigmaXLYesYesNoNoYesNoNoNoYes
ErsatzNoNoNoNoYesNoNoNoNo
MC FLOYesYesYesNoNoNoNoNoNo
ModelRisk CompleteYesYesYesNoNoYesYesYesYes
ModelRisk BasicYesYesYesNoNoNoYesYesNo
Monte CarnivalNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNo
Quantum XLYesNoNoNoYesNoNoNoYes
Risk AnalyzerNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNo
Risk Kit SuiteYesYesYesNoNoNoYesYes[23]No
Risk Solver ProYesNoXLMiner optionYesNoXLMiner optionYesYesYes
Risk Solver Pro + Premium Solver ProYesNoXLMiner optionYesYesXLMiner optionYesYesYes
RiskAmp PersonalNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNo
RiskAmp ProfessionalNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNo
SAFE TOOLBOXESYesYesYesNoNoNoYesNoYes
Simtools xlaNoNoNoFunctions / macrosNoNoYesNoNo
SimilarYesNoNoNoYesNoYesYesNo
Simulation Master PremiumYesYesYesDTace optionYesNoYesNoNo
Simulation Master StandardNoNoNoDTace optionNoNoNoNoNo
YASAI and YASAIwNoNoNoNoNoNoYesNoNo

Technical specification II[edit]

NameConverters forProbability calculation functions[24]UDF error analysis[25]Extreme value modeling[26]Expert elicitation tools[27]Data previsualizerODE and numerical integrationAssumption library
@RISK IndustrialCrystal BallYesNoNoYesYesNoYes
@RISK ProfessionalCrystal BallYesNoNoYesYesNoYes
ArgoNoYesNoNoNoYesNoNo
Crystal BallNoYesNoNoNoYesNoNo
Crystal Ball + Decision OptimizerNoYesNoNoNoYesNoNo
DiscoverSim + SigmaXLNoYesNoNoNoYesNoNo
ErsatzNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNo
MC FLONoYesYesNoYesYesNoNo
ModelRisk CompleteCrystal Ball, @RISKYesYesYesYesYesYesYes
ModelRisk BasicCrystal Ball, @RISKNoYesNoNoNoNoNo
Monte CarnivalNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNo
Quantum XLNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNo
Risk AnalyzerNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNo
Risk Kit SuiteNoYesYesYesYesYesNoNo
Risk Solver ProNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNo
Risk Solver Pro + Premium Solver ProNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNo
RiskAmp PersonalNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNo
RiskAmp ProfessionalNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNo
SAFE TOOLBOXESNoYesNoYesNoYesYesYes
Simtools xlaNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNo
SimilarNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNo
Simulation Master PremiumNoNoYesNoNoNoNoNo
Simulation Master StandardNoNoYesNoNoNoNoNo
YASAI and YASAIwNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNo

Simulation Controls[edit]

NameControl of seed valuesMaximum numbers of draws[28]Random number generatorLock / unlock random variables[29]Multiple simulation runs[30]Run macros before/after simulation[31]Stop run when output generates error[32]Apply specific sample in model[33]Precision control[34]Spreadsheet interpreter[35]Sampling method[36]
@RISK IndustrialYesUnlimitedSeveralYesYesYesYesYesYesNoMC, LHS
@RISK ProfessionalYesUnlimitedSeveralYesYesYesYesYesYesNoMC, LHS
ArgoYes20000Mersenne TwisterYesNoNoNoYesNoYesMC, LHS
Crystal BallYesUnlimitedMCG[37]YesYesYesYesNoYesYesMC, LHS
Crystal Ball + Decision OptimizerYesUnlimitedMCG[37]YesYesYesYesNoYesYesMC, LHS
DiscoverSim + SigmaXLYes1e7Marsaglia KISS + MonsterNoNoNoNoNoNoYesMC, LHS
ErsatzNoUnlimited7 RNGsYesYesYesNoNoNoNoMC
MC FLOYesUnlimited / Constrained by ExcelMersenne TwisterYesNoNoYesYesNoNoMC
ModelRisk CompleteYesUnlimitedMersenne TwisterYesYesYesYesYesYesNoMC
ModelRisk BasicYesUnlimitedMersenne TwisterYesYesYesYesYesYesNoMC
Monte CarnivalNoUnlimitedSeveralYesYesNoYesNoNoNo
Quantum XLNo10000Mersenne TwisterNoNoNoNoNoYesYesMC
Risk AnalyzerNoConstrained by Excel?NoNoNoNoNoNoNoMC
Risk Kit SuiteYesUnlimitedMersenne TwisterNoYesYesYesNoNoNoMC
Risk Solver ProYesUnlimitedSeveralYesYesYesNoYesNoYesMC, LHS, Sobol
Risk Solver Pro + Premium Solver ProYesUnlimitedSeveralYesYesYesNoYesNoYesMC, LHS, Sobol
RiskAmp PersonalYesConstrained by ExcelMersenne TwisterYesNoNoNoNoNoNoMC, LHS
RiskAmp ProfessionalYesConstrained by ExcelMersenne TwisterYesNoNoNoNoNoNoMC, LHS
SAFE TOOLBOXESYesUnlimitedMersenne Twister, RanLux and GFSRGYesYesYesNoYesNoNoMC, Antithetic, Fauré,Halton
Simtools xlaNoConstrained by ExcelExcel's RANDNoNoNoNoNoNoNoMC
SimilarNoConstrained by Excel?YesNoNoNoNoNoNoMC
Simulation Master PremiumYesConstrained by ExcelMCG[37], Excel's RANDYesYesNoNoNoNoNoMC
Simulation Master StandardYesConstrained by ExcelMCG[37], Excel's RANDYesNoNoNoNoNoNoMC
YASAI and YASAIwYesConstrained by ExcelL'Ecuyer's MRG32k3a[38]NoYesYesNoNoNoNoMC

Reporting results[edit]

NameIncludes reporting toolReport export formats[39]Save and retrieve resultsEditing of graphs[40]HistogramCumulativeTime series plotSpider[41]TornadoScatterParetoBoxStatisticsSimulation dataResults filtering[42]
@RISK IndustrialYesExcel, bitmapYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYes
@RISK ProfessionalYesExcel, bitmapYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYes
ArgoYesExcel, bitmapYesYesYesYesNoYesYesYesNoNoYesYesNo
Crystal BallYesExcelYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesYesYes
Crystal Ball + Decision OptimizerYesExcelYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesYesYes
DiscoverSim + SigmaXLYesExcelYesYesYesNoYesNoYesYesYesYesYesYesYes
ErsatzNoExcelYesYesYesNoNoNoYesYesNoNoYesNoNo
MC FLOYesExcelYesYesYesYesYesN/AYesYesYesN/AYesYesYes
ModelRisk CompleteYesPDF, PowerPoint, Word, Excel, ModelRisk ResultsViewer, bitmapYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYes
ModelRisk BasicYesPDF, PowerPoint, Word, Excel, ModelRisk ResultsViewer, bitmapYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYes
Monte CarnivalYesExcelYesYesNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNoYesYes
Quantum XLNoN/AExcelN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Risk AnalyzerNoN/AExcelN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Risk Kit SuiteYesExcelNoYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesNo
Risk Solver ProYesExcelYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesYesYesYes
Risk Solver Pro + Premium Solver ProYesExcelYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesNoYesYesYesYes
RiskAmp PersonalNoExcelN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
RiskAmp ProfessionalNoExcelN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
SAFE TOOLBOXESYesNot required.YesYesYesYesYesNoNoYesNoYesYesYesYes
Simtools xlaNoExcelN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
SimilarNoExcelN/AN/AYesYesN/AYesYesN/AN/AN/AYesYesN/A
Simulation Master PremiumYesExcelYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesNoNoYesYesNo
Simulation Master StandardYesExcelYesYesYesYesNoYesYesYesNoNoYesYesNo
YASAI and YASAIwNoExcelN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AYesN/A

Help file, support and training[edit]

NameUDFs linked to help file[43]Interfaces linked to help file[44]Help file in PDFHelp file onlineTechnical support availableLanguage versions[45]Online videosOnline trainingOnsite training
@RISK IndustrialYesYesYesYesYesZH, EN, FR, DE, JA, PT, ESYesYesYes
@RISK ProfessionalYesYesYesYesYesZH, EN, FR, DE, JA, PT, ESYesYesYes
ArgoNoNoYesYesYesENNoNoYes
Crystal BallNoYesYesYesYesEN, JA, ES, DE, FR, PTYesYesVia Partners
Crystal Ball + Decision OptimizerNoYesYesYesYesEN, JA, ES, DE, FR, PTYesYesVia Partners
DiscoverSim + SigmaXLN/AYesYesYesYesENYesNoYes
ErsatzNoNoYesYesYesENNoNoNo
MC FLONoNoYesNoYesDE, EN, ESYesNoNo
ModelRisk CompleteYesYesYesYesYesENYesYesYes
ModelRisk BasicYesYesYesYesYesENYesYesYes
Monte CarnivalYesYesYesYesYesENYesNoNo
Quantum XLN/AYesNoNoYesENNoNoYes
Risk AnalyzerN/AN/ANoNoYesENNo??
Risk Kit SuiteYesYesNoNoYesEN, FR, DEYesNoYes
Risk Solver ProYesYesYesYesYesENYesYesYes
Risk Solver Pro + Premium Solver ProYesYesYesYesYesENYesYesYes
RiskAmp PersonalNoNoYesYesYesENNoNoNo
RiskAmp ProfessionalNoNoYesYesYesENNoNoNo
SAFE TOOLBOXESNoNoNoYesYesENYesNoNo
Simtools xlaNoNoNoNoNoENNoNoNo
SimilarNoNoYesNoYesEN, ESNoNoNo
Simulation Master PremiumNoYesYesYesYesENYesNoNo
Simulation Master StandardNoYesYesYesYesENYesNoNo
YASAI and YASAIwNoNoNoNoNoENNoNoNo

See also[edit]

Footnotes and references[edit]

  1. ^ ab@RISK manual version 7.0, Palisade Corporation http://www.palisade.com
  2. ^ Booz Allen Hamilton, Argo https://boozallen.github.io/argo/
  3. ^ abCrystal Ball manual: Oracle® Crystal Ball http://www.oracle.com/us/products/applications/crystalball/index.html, Fusion addition Release 11.1.1.3 Statistical Guide
  4. ^DiscoverSim Workbook: SigmaXL® DiscoverSim http://www.sigmaxl.com/DiscoverSim_Features.shtml
  5. ^Ersatz website: http://www.epigear.com/index_files/ersatz.html
  6. ^MC FLO online resources: https://www.mcflosim.ch/en/
  7. ^ abModelRisk online help file: http://www.vosesoftware.com/vosesoftware/ModelRiskHelp/
  8. ^'Monte Carlo Simulation Add-In for Microsoft Excel - Monte Carnival'. montecarnival.com. Retrieved 2018-01-16.
  9. ^Help file downloadable with software at http://www.sigmazone.com/
  10. ^The Risk Kit Suite is available as portable (no admin-rights required) or installer version. It consists of Risk Kit for Monte-Carlo simulations, Risk Kit R for advanced statistical analyses, and Risk Kit Data for an online data feed of financial data and social statistics from the European Central Bank ECB, the World Bank, the Federal Reserve Economic Data FRED, Eurostat and Yahoo!Finance. Risk Kit Suite on corporate website: http://www.wehrspohn.info/Wehrspohn-GmbH-Co-KG.656.0.html?&L=1
  11. ^ abRisk Solver online user guide: http://www.solver.com/suppxlsguide.htm
  12. ^ abRiskAmp online user guide: http://www.riskamp.com/library/howto.php
  13. ^SAFE TOOLBOXES website: http://www.safetoolboxes.com
  14. ^http://home.uchicago.edu/rmyerson/addins.htm#simt
  15. ^Help file downloadable with software at http://www.simularsoft.com.ar/
  16. ^ ab'Simulation Master - Monte Carlo Simulation Add-In for Excel'. Vortarus Technologies LLC. Retrieved 2018-01-28.
  17. ^http://tukhi.com/
  18. ^http://www.yasai.rutgers.edu/
  19. ^http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/eap/models.html
  20. ^Excel has tools for calculating correlation statistics for a data set. This refers to the software's ability to fit correlation structures to a data set and, where more than one correlation structure is available, to compare the levels of fit.
  21. ^Some add-ins provide VBA versions of their UDFs, which allow the user to build their own stochastic UDFs in VBA. Some add-ins also provide VBA functions that control a simulation. This allows the user to create VBA macros that will automatically run simulations and generate results.
  22. ^Some add-ins allow calls to C++ routines. These allow the user to create a stand-alone DLL that represents a part of the model which needs to be as fast as possible by making use of the faster performance of the original code (usually C++)
  23. ^Integrable as .NET-assembly
  24. ^Provides the facility to calculate probability mass (or density), cumulative probability, moments, etc. of a distribution directly in the spreadsheet.
  25. ^Standard error messages like #VALUE! when an input parameter is invalid is replaced by a message describing the reason of the error.
  26. ^Tools to evaluate the distribution of the minimum or maximum sample from a set of IIDs
  27. ^Graphical interfaces to facilitate determining distribution of uncertainty of some model parameter based on expert opinion.
  28. ^Some add-ins do not have a custom results viewer and export the data directly into the spreadsheet for analysis using the spreadsheet's native charting and statistical tools. The number of draws is then restricted by the ability of the spreadsheet to handle the size of the generated data.
  29. ^The ability to replace a random variable with a fixed value.
  30. ^Some add-ins allow the user to automatically run a model multiple times replacing decision variables with different values for each simulation run
  31. ^Some add-ins allow the user to run a VBA macro before a simulation (e.g. to import data from an external source), after a simulation (e.g. to export the results to a database) or before or after a random draw of the model (e.g. to perform an optimization).
  32. ^Stopping a simulation run when an output variable generates an error is a useful feature for debugging a model
  33. ^After a simulation run the user is able to insert a specific generated result back into the spreadsheet. This is useful, for example, if one wants to investigate the generated scenario that created the greatest profit or loss.
  34. ^The ability to specify a required level of precision for output results, usually the accuracy with which the mean or a percentile of the output has been determined. Precision control will stop a simulation run when the required accuracy is achieved
  35. ^Some add-ins will create a compiled version of the spreadsheet model before simulation. This has the benefit of a far faster simulation speed, but will not work with many types of models e.g. models that include VBA calls or functions like OFFSET and VLOOKUP.
  36. ^Only Monte Carlo sampling is compatible with copula correlation structures. Using Latin Hypercube or Sobol sampling removes the possibility of using other correlation structures like Archimedean copulas.
  37. ^ abcdMultiplicative Congruential Generator
  38. ^L'Ecuyer et al. 2002. An object-oriented random-number package with many long streams and substreams. Operations Research 50(6)1073-1075. http://www.iro.umontreal.ca/~lecuyer/myftp/papers/streams00.pdf
  39. ^Exporting file formats to share graphical and statistical results.
  40. ^Ability to change colour schemes, fonts, add markers and legends, etc.
  41. ^See, for example: https://www.google.ca/search?q=spider+sensitivity+analysis&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjazfDmvOvJAhVJmR4KHTYJBO4QsAQIIA&biw=1920&bih=906
  42. ^The ability to select a subset of the simulation results (e.g. scenarios that result in a loss) thereby allowing the user to investigate scenarios of greatest interest.
  43. ^In Excel the Insert Function dialog box includes a 'Help on this function'-hyperlink. Some add-ins use this feature to provide a direct link to the applicable help file topic.
  44. ^Some add-ins with visual interfaces and dialog boxes include a help icon that directly links to the applicable help file topic for that interface
  45. ^ZH = Chinese, EN = English, FR = French, DE = German, JA = Japanese, PT = Portuguese, ES= Spanish

Further reading[edit]

  • Albright, S. (2011), Data Analysis and Decision Making, 4th Edition, USA: Cengage Learning, ISBN978-0-538-47612-6
  • Charnes, J. (2012), Financial Modeling with Oracle Crystal Ball and Excel (2nd edition), USA: Wiley, ISBN978-0-471-77972-8
  • Day, A. (2003), Mastering Risk Modeling, Great Britain: Prentice Hall, ISBN0-273-65978-2
  • Evans, J.; Olson, D. (1998), Introduction To Simulation And Risk Analysis, United States of America: Prentice Hall, ISBN0-13-621608-0
  • Iman, R. L. and Conover, W. J., (1982). 'A Distribution-Free Approach to Inducing Rank Order Correlation Among Input Variables', Commun Statist-Simula Computa 11(3) 311-334
  • Lehman, D.; Groenendaal, H.; Nolder, G. (2010), Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management, United States of America: CRC Press, ISBN978-1-4398-5552-2
  • Machain, L. (2011), Simuación de Modelos Financieros, ISBN978-987-33-0705-8
  • Ragsdale, C. (2008), Spreadsheet Modeling & Decision Analysis: A Practical Introduction to Management Science (5th edition), Great Britain: Thomson South-Western, ISBN0-324-65664-5
  • Vose, D. (2008), Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide (3rd edition), Great Britain: Wiley, ISBN978-0-470-51284-5
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